2018 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICITIONS
It's almost here! It's the day we wait all year for in film, and it looks like it's gonna be a toss-up. This year marks the 90th Academy Awards ceremony, so it's a big one. But unlike last year, where there were many obvious frontrunners in each category (La La Land, Moonlight, need I go on?), this year shows more of a divide. There are still the suspected winners in each category, but there seem to be few people in favour of all the nominees who are leading the pack. This should make for an interesting show with hopefully one or two spoiler wins, if Academy voters decide to make things exciting. It's likely that nothing will top last year's Best Picture mixup, but with Jimmy Kimmel returning to host, it's sure to still be a fun night. Below I've listed who I think will win and who I think should win in each category.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Call Me By Your Name; Get Out; Lady Bird; The Shape of Water
Full disclosure: this is the only category where I have multiple nominees that I'm listing as should win, largely because I would be over the moon if any of these took home the award by some miracle. The Shape of Water is the one film out of those four that I think has a really high chance, especially since it's considered by most to be the frontrunner of the category alongside Three Billboards. Not only is it the one picture that appears to have any likelihood at overcoming the weird 3B awards mania this year, but it's an incredible film in its own right. My two personal favourites of the year were Lady Bird and CMBYN, which also faced a ton of universal praise, so naturally it would be amazing if one of them pulled a surprise win--sadly, I don't think it's likely. If anything, I think that Get Out has the best chance at filling that potential dark-horse winner role, since it's undeniably the one film this year that had everybody talking.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Will win: Guillermo del Toro
Should win: Guillermo del Toro
This year had a surprisingly wonderful turnout in the directors' category, with newcomers Peele and Gerwig being the fifth black man and fifth woman respectively to be nominated for directing. PTA is a fan favourite who was expected to be snubbed here, and Nolan had pretty much already secured a spot here. But Del Toro outshines them all with his direction in The Shape of Water, and it's arguable that it's the one thing that makes the movie as successful as it is. This is his year.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Will win: Frances McDormand
Should win: Saoirse Ronan
To be fair, McDormand's performance in Three Billboards is the one win for that movie that I would be okay with. She pretty much carried the movie on her back. However, Ronan's performance as the titular Lady Bird is one that will be remembered for years to come. She embodies those qualities inexplicably found in every teenager so seamlessly, and it's hard to imagine anyone else playing this role so masterfully. This is also her third Oscar nomination at only 23 years old, and it's about time a win comes her way.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will win: Gary Oldman
Should win: Timothée Chalamet
Sadly, Gary Oldman is leading the pack for this race. I get that he embodied Winston Churchill and all, but wasn't it the makeup doing a lot of that work? Also, I think it's odd that in the wake of the Me Too movement we're conveniently forget about the allegations against him assaulting his wife with a telephone years ago. On the other hand, Timothée Chalamet was this year's major breakout. Critics raved about his performance in Call Me By Your Name, and if he were to win the Oscar, he'd be the youngest person ever to win in the Best Actor category. If anyone stands a chance at taking Oldman's trophy, it's him.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Will win: Allison Janney
Should win: Laurie Metcalf
Don't get me wrong, Janney had a great performance in I, Tonya and I definitely wouldn't be upset if she won. However, I personally find that Metcalf's performance was the one with slightly more depth. Both played aggressive and overbearing mothers, but while Janney's character was more get-what-you-see, with Metcalf's we often got to see her peel back the layers to show what was lying underneath, and I think that's what gives her slight edge in my eyes.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win: Sam Rockwell
Should win: Willem Dafoe
It's not that Sam Rockwell had a bad performance, because I don't think that by any means. It's just not my preferred choice given that I definitely wasn't a fan of the redemption arc that his character received. That being said, I think that Willem Dafoe should get this one for The Florida Project, which was an otherwise overlooked movie this season. His performance was so moving and authentic, and he already won big in the critics' circles. It was only for the big industry awards that Sam Rockwell swooped in for the prizes, but I'm hoping there's a chance the Academy's votes are in Dafoe's favour.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win: Get Out
Should win: Lady Bird
It's looking pretty likely that Get Out is going to take this one, and its originality is indisputable: there is truly no other story like it. Its top competition and my personal preference is Lady Bird, a coming-of-age tale that boasts memorable dialogue consistently throughout (you can even read the screenplay for free online). While I'm rooting for Lady Bird, I'll be happy with whichever way it goes, and it's nice to see that even though Gerwig and Peele will probably be overshadowed in other categories, they are spearheading the writers' field.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Will win: Call Me By Your Name
Should win: Call Me By Your Name
The adapted screenplay category is pretty weak this year, and the clear standout is CMBYN. It's already won all the major honours thus far, and I wouldn't expect the Academy Awards to be any different.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Will win: Coco
Should win: Coco
Critics love it, voters love it, audiences love it. I don't think there's any way Coco isn't winning this one. The Breadwinner would have posed some competition, but considering it hasn't already made much of a dent in the awards circuit, I don't think it will now.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Will win: Faces Places
Should win: Faces Places
Agnès Varda, this is your year! I could be totally off, but out of all the docs, Faces Places is probably the most beloved.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
Will win: Loveless
Should win: A Fantastic Woman
We need a good story with a transgender protagonist to finally get some recognition, and A Fantastic Woman could be the one to finally get it. However, I have a feeling that Loveless will win instead.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: The Shape of Water
Alexandre Desplat composed a beautiful score for The Shape of Water that wholeheartedly deserves to win.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me," Coco
"Stand Up for Something," Marshall
"This is Me," The Greatest Showman
Will win: "Remember Me"
Should win: "Mystery of Love"
"Mystery of Love" was such a beautiful song, and I truly hope Sufjan Stevens can take this one home. Sadly though, I have a feeling Coco's "Remember Me" might nab this one instead.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will win: Baby Driver
Should win: Baby Driver
BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will win: Dunkirk
Should win: Dunkirk
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Will win: Darkest Hour
Should win: Wonder
Wonder has been considered one of cinema's greatest achievements in makeup in recent years, but unfortunately, it is not makeup artists voting in the Academy (for the most part, anyways). So, naturally, this one is gonna go to the only film here with a BP nod, Darkest Hour.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
Will win: Phantom Thread
Should win: Phantom Thread
It's literally a film about a fashion designer. Need I say more?
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Blade Runner 2049
I truly believe Roger Deakins will finally have his year, and deservedly so: Blade Runner is a visually stunning film. It's awesome that Rachel Morrison was recognized for her work in Mudbound, but I think if anything robs Blade Runner it'll be Dunkirk, another film focused strongly on visuals.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Blade Runner 2049
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win: Baby Driver
Should win: Baby Driver
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Blade Runner 2049
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Edith + Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Will win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Should win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote: All of Us
Will win: The Eleven O'Clock
Should win: The Eleven O'Clock
BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Will win: Dear Basketball
Should win: Dear Basketball
Well, congrats if you made it through all that! I will be vigorously live tweeting all night long, most likely with a combination of cheers and tears. Until then!