2018 GOLDEN GLOBES FILM PREDICTIONS
It's almost that time! Even though we all know the Globes barely mean anything when it comes to the Oscar race, it's still a big fun extravaganza where we can watch our favourite actors and filmmakers dress up and take home big, shiny trophies. And it's not like winning a Globe isn't a great accomplishment in itself.
My predictions only cover the film portion of the awards, since I haven't seen enough of the television nominees to really make any informed choices. All I can say for that is: expect a (deserved) Big Little Lies sweep in the miniseries categories. We'll be waiting for megaspeech #2, Nicole!!!
Keep in mind that the HFPA is one wild bunch and loves to throw a couple surprise wins in there (and as we've seen, surprise nominations), so I can pretty much guarantee that some of these will be wrong. But it's fun to guess, anyways!
BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
While I would personally love to see CMBYN take this one home (and hey, it's the Golden Globes, anything is possible--plus, the HFPA is super Euro-centric), I'm gonna put my money on The Shape of Water, also the picture with the most Globes nominations this year. It's just one of those movies you know voters will eat up, from the Old Hollywood-esque set to the top-notch cast. Realistically, it wouldn't be absurd or surprising for any of these movies to take home the award, so really, they all have a shot.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
This one is definitely a race between Lady Bird and Get Out, but you know I've got to give this one to LB. It doesn't help that the placement of Get Out in the comedy category stirred some major controversy. Movies that are harder to define by genre always seemingly end up in this category: maybe this is a sign that the Globes should change their system already? Lady Bird's heartwarming coming-of-age dramedy hits more of the traditional comedic notes than the horror comedy that is Get Out, which takes a satirical approach to much more serious subject matter. It still has a chance, but I'm going with Lady Bird on this one.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
A stacked category, indeed. This one is mostly between Sally Hawkins for her utterly fantastic and moving performance as a mute woman and Frances McDormand who is arresting in her performance of a grieving mother who demands answers. It's a pretty even coin toss between these two, but I would have to pick McDormand as the winner of this one. But who knows? Meryl Streep, 9-time Golden Globe winner, could finesse us all and snag her 10th win for her role in The Post: this would be a very typical HFPA move.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Call me crazy, but I truly think Young Timmy can take this one (and I swear I'm not just being biased!). His young, emotionally tender Elio is easily one of the most critically-acclaimed performances of this past year in film, and he's been snagging awards for it left, right and centre. His biggest competition is Gary Oldman, who has been receiving pretty consistent praise for his role as Winston Churchill. But this is Oldman's first Globes nom, too, so everything is pretty much up in the air. It would also be pretty refreshing for Chalamet to win up against four big names, some of whom are only nominated for their big name (still love you, Denzel). It's the Globes, so anything goes. Chalamet already beat out his heavy competition by winning Best Actor at both the New York and Los Angeles Film Critics' ceremonies, and landed Critics' Choice and SAG noms on top of the Globes. And he's one of the top contenders for the Oscar, so....just wait and see, guys. I'm telling you.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
This award is Saoirse's to win. 3-time Golden Globe nominee at only 23 years old, Ronan does some of her best work in the title role of Lady Bird, and is truly the driving force of that film. She is pretty much a universal representation of every teenager ever, which is an amazing feat. Next in line for the award would be Margot Robbie for her portrayal of Tonya Harding, but Ronan's steadily increasing number of awards won for this role and previous Globes nominations easily pushes her to the forefront of the bunch.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
In a dedicated and spot-on portrayal of eccentric film director Tommy Wiseau, it's hard to imagine anyone other than James Franco taking this one. Wiseau is pretty much an enigma, yet Franco captures his essence in such a comedic yet heartwarming way (and here's to hoping Wiseau accompanies him to the awards ceremony). Also the film's director, Franco spent hours studied Wiseau's own recordings, and clearly the result paid off (I mean, he mastered that ambiguous Eastern European accent like a champ). The category's runner-up is Daniel Kaluuya as the leading man in Get Out, who I would go as far to say is probably the only other serious contender for this award.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
This one is a battle of the moms. It's a tight-neck race between Laurie Metcalf as Lady Bird's brutal but loving mother and Allison Janney as the intense and gruelling LaVona Harding. It could go either way, but I'm gonna go with Metcalf here.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I would be really surprised if anyone but Willem Dafoe got this award. Dafoe has been sweeping Best Supporting categories for his role as Bobby in The Florida Project, the caring and fatherly manager of a budget motel. But that's not to say it isn't a strong category. Sam Rockwell's performance in Three Billboards received tons of praise, as did Richard Jenkins for his loveable role in The Shape of Water. Armie Hammer was a great counterpart to Chalamet in CMBYN, and of course, Christopher Plummer was a swift fill-in for a role that was originally Kevin Spacey's and he was ultimately the film's saviour. But this is Dafoe's year, and I don't expect that to change at the Globes.
BEST DIRECTOR - MOTION PICTURE
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
There were some notable omissions from this category (Greta Gerwig? Jordan Peele? Luca Guadagnino?). But this one has got to be Del Toro's--The Shape of Water couldn't possibly be what it is without its superb direction.
BEST SCREENPLAY - MOTION PICTURE
Liz Hannah, Josh Singer, The Post
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
This is a pretty heavy category, and one that could ultimately go any way. But the one thing that Lady Bird is consistently praised for aside from its performances is its stellar script. It's a very literary film, and it maintains that brilliant binary of being both universal and specific. I think Gerwig definitely has the edge, and it's my hope she wins, but all the other contenders are pretty strong--it could end up being a toss-up.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - ANIMATED
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Being the best-reviewed animated movie of the year, this award is Coco's, with a strong runner-up being The Breadwinner (shoutout to Deborah Ellis--this book was such an eye-opener for my fifth grade self who knew nothing outside my privileged first-world bubble). But this is one of those times where I'm wondering what was going through the heads of the HFPA--I mean, we apparently live in a world where The Boss Baby is worthy of a Golden Globe.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Loveless
The Square
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Time to admit I haven't gotten around to seeing any of this year's foreign awards baits yet, but I would say this one is gonna belong to A Fantastic Woman or First They Killed My Father. However, the latter was snubbed from the Oscars shortlist this year, so it may get its redemption at the Globes, but I'm gonna say this one will go to A Fantastic Woman.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - MOTION PICTURE
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
John Williams, The Post
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
The Shape of Water has such a pretty and distinct score, so I would give this one to Desplat (plus, the HFPA loves him). Greenwood has a chance as Phantom Thread has a pretty interesting score from the bits I've heard, and of course there's the legendary Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk. But I think for this one, it's the French for the win.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - MOTION PICTURE
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Remember Me," Coco
"The Star," The Star
"This is Me," The Greatest Showman
"Home," Ferdinand
Alright, so first off: where the hell is Sufjan Stevens on this list????? Did we not all hear "Mystery of Love" and "Visions of Gideon" in Call Me By Your Name and collectively decide he wrote the year's best songs in film???? Like, all I'm saying is that he's coming for that Oscar, so I don't know what the HFPA was thinking (again). ANYWAYS, now that the more important matter is out of the way: this is probably going to Coco's "Remember Me." Maybe "Mighty River" from Mudbound since it's a Mary J. Blige tune, but probably not. I think we should all just throw hands and still give the award to Stevens.
(Armie Hammer agrees.)
Congrats if you read (or skimmed) these!! Awards season is just weirdly fun for me, so of course I had to make this list. I'll probably make a recap post sometime after the awards to give my thoughts on how the night went down. And I'll probably make tweets about it. Not gonna lie.
Until then, kids!